The Māori ethnic population in Aotearoa New Zealand is rapidly growing, with an estimated 932,000 individuals identifying as Māori as of June 2025. This number is projected to surpass the one million mark by 2033, according to Stats NZ's latest figures. The growth is attributed to a combination of factors: higher-than-average birth rates and a younger demographic structure. Between 2012 and 2025, Māori births averaged approximately 17,000 annually, and this trend is expected to continue, potentially reaching over 19,000 by the late 2030s. Inter-ethnic partnerships also contribute to this growth, as one-quarter of Māori births involve non-Māori mothers and Māori fathers. Interestingly, many Māori individuals identify with multiple ethnicities, with 59% of the Māori population associating with other ethnic groups in the 2023 Census. These figures include: 53% European, 11% Pacific, 2% Asian, and 0.4% Middle Eastern/Latin American/African. The Māori population is aging, with a projected increase in the 65+ age group from 75,000 in 2025 to around 180,000 in 2048. The median age for Māori is also rising, from 28 in 2025 to 35 in 2048, compared to the overall New Zealand median age of 38, which is expected to reach 43 by 2048. Furthermore, Stats NZ provides insights into the Māori descent population based on whakapapa, revealing a distinct difference between the Māori ethnic population and those of Māori descent, with the latter numbering 1,036,000 as of June 2023.
